Working Papers
Taxing volume, targeting sugar: the impact of sugar-sweetened beverage excise taxes on outcomes associated with taxed and untaxed characteristics
(with Justin White). Link to Working Paper.
This paper studies how specific excise taxes affect outcomes for both taxed and untaxed product characteristics. We examine excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) that are levied per ounce but are typically intended to reduce sugar intake. Using high-frequency retail scanner data and a staggered-adoption synthetic difference-in-differences design, we estimate the impacts of volumetric SSB taxes in five US cities on prices and purchases of both volume and sugar from SSBs. We estimate smaller increases in the average price per ounce (26.5%) than in the average price per gram of sugar (40.7%), and larger reductions in volume (-36.2%) than in sugar (-31.0%) purchased from SSBs. These patterns imply that treating proportional reductions in SSB volume as equivalent to proportional reductions in sugar can overstate sugar reductions---and thus the health and welfare benefits---under a volumetric tax. We find suggestive evidence consistent with consumer substitution toward beverages with higher average sugar concentrations, particularly among larger-volume products and in Philadelphia, aligning with the observed tax-induced gap in SSB volume and sugar purchases. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of heterogeneity across products in both taxed and untaxed characteristics of interest, and support taxes that directly target the social-cost-generating characteristic.
The impact of publicly funded small business advisory services: firm take-up and performance in the United States
(with Ryan Raimondi). Link to Working Paper.
This paper studies the impact of geographic proximity to and utilization of publicly funded advisory services offered to US small businesses on firm take-up and performance. We leverage a novel administrative dataset from the Northern California Small Business Development Center (SBDC) Network covering all firm-center interactions from 2006–23. To address endogeneity in firm engagement with centers, we exploit exogenous variation in center-firm geographic proximity generated by center closures and openings. We instrument for paired center-firm consulting time with changes in distance resulting from these organizational shifts. A one standard deviation reduction in distance between a firm and corresponding center (20 miles) increases expected annual consulting time by 0.15 hours (7.5%); each additional consulting hour raises average firm annual revenue and employment by 3.6-5.2% and 1.6-2.9%, respectively. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest advisory services are cost-effective. This study provides novel causal evidence on take-up and effectiveness of small business advisory services in the US using quasi-experimental variation in geographic proximity. Our findings highlight the importance of both physical distance and localized expertise in shaping small business outcomes.
Preferences and demand for information that entertains
(with Oskar Zorrilla). Previously circulated under the titles "Entertainment Utility from Skill and Thrill" and "Entertainment Demand from Expectations." [New Draft Coming Soon!]
This paper uses revealed preference methods to estimate demand for non-instrumental information in entertainment. We apply and extend the theory presented in Ely, Frankel, and Kamenica (2015, JPE) to conduct an empirical analysis that examines the effect of suspense and surprise on consumer demand. We first introduce alternative definitions of suspense and surprise using the theory of mutual information, and prove that suspense is in fact expected surprise. We then estimate the impact of suspense and surprise on television viewership using play-by-play and high-temporal frequency television ratings data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). Our primary results suggest that a one standard deviation increase in suspense increases viewership by 2.53% - 2.91%, while surprise has no impact. These findings have important implications for entertainment media companies, including leagues and television broadcasters, advertisers, and policy-makers, particularly those interested in addictive behavior.
Selected Work in Progress
The fear of first strike: quantitative theory of delayed punishments
(with Diego Gebhardt and Jacek Rothert).
Are consumers willing to pay to avoid price uncertainty? Evidence from the vehicle leasing market
(with Andy Hultgren and Derek Wolfson).