Working Papers
Taxing volume, targeting sugar: the impact of sugar-sweetened beverage excise taxes on outcomes associated with taxed and untaxed characteristics
(with Justin White). Link to SSRN Working Paper. Submitted.
This paper develops a framework to understand how excise taxes affect outcomes related to both taxed characteristics of a product and associated, untaxed characteristics. The empirical analysis examines volume-based excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); a primary objective of these taxes is to reduce added sugar intake. Using national high-frequency retail scanner data and a staggered adoption synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID) approach, we study the impacts of volume-based taxes across the US on prices and purchases of volume and sugar from SSBs. First, we find volume-based taxes disproportionately increase the relative price of larger-volume products, increasing the average price per ounce by 4.4% (24.6%) for products in the smallest (largest) product size quartile. Second, we show a specific excise tax generates an equivalent relative price increase on taxed and untaxed characteristics within a product. Finally, volume-based taxes in the US led to (i) larger overall reductions in purchases of ounces of volume (-36.2%) compared to grams of sugar (-31.0%) from SSBs and (ii) smaller increases in the average price/ounce (26.5%) compared to the average price/gram of sugar (40.7%) in SSBs. We find the difference in purchases is plausibly driven by consumer substitution towards products with higher sugar concentrations, especially among the largest-volume products in the Philadelphia taxed jurisdiction. The findings have important implications for specific excise tax structures, which should consider heterogeneity across products in both taxed and untaxed characteristics of interest.
Preferences and demand for information that entertains
(with Oskar Zorrilla). Previously circulated under the title "Entertainment Utility from Skill and Thrill" and "Entertainment Demand from Expectations." 2023 ASSA Annual Meeting Conference Paper.
This paper uses revealed preference methods to estimate demand for non-instrumental information in entertainment. We apply and extend the theory presented in Ely, Frankel, and Kamenica (2015, JPE) to conduct an empirical analysis that examines the effect of suspense and surprise on consumer demand. We first introduce alternative definitions of suspense and surprise using the theory of mutual information, and prove that suspense is in fact expected surprise. We then estimate the impact of suspense and surprise on television viewership using play-by-play and high-temporal frequency television ratings data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). Our primary results suggest that a one standard deviation increase in suspense increases viewership by 2.53% - 2.91%, while surprise has no impact. These findings have important implications for entertainment media companies, including leagues and television broadcasters, advertisers, and policy-makers, particularly those interested in addictive behavior.
Selected Work in Progress
Designing sugar-sweetened beverage taxes to limit avoidance behaviors
(with Sofia B. Villas Boas).
The fear of first strike: quantitative theory of delayed punishments
(with Diego Gebhardt and Jacek Rothert). ​
Are consumers willing to pay to avoid price uncertainty? Evidence from the vehicle leasing market
(with Andy Hultgren and Derek Wolfson).
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